When violence works for everyone

Amid continuing violence in the aftermath of Armenian presidential elections, there's been a flareup in the Garabagh border standoff.

Azerbaijan claims that the violence is an attempt to divert attention from the protests, and that isn't entirely unbelievable. According to the Defence Ministry:

You see, Armenians are trying to divert the attention of their citizens and the world community from the internal and domestic unrest and bloody actions. That is the reason why Armenia resorted to this. Azerbaijani armed forces courageously and bravely repelled the enemy, prevented their attacks and gave deserving retaliation.

However, that's not the only issue at play here -- the actual violence comes in the direct aftermath of a salvo launched by Azeri president Ilham Aliyev:

"Official Baku will never make concessions to the separatist regime of Nagorno Karabakh and will never give up its principles. We are for the peaceful resolution of the problem in the framework of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity with observance of norms and principles of international law. But we should also be ready to the problem settlement by other ways," Aliyev noted.

He said in this issue country's leadership attach special attention to army strengthening. "For this purpose we use all capacities. Strengthening of the army will influence the negotiation process and settlement of the problem", the president said.

These broadsides, however, are a matter of course in Azeri politics, and one more or less could hardly rock the boat of Azer-Armenia diplomacy.

The Armenians, of course, responded; given the tensions between the two, it's impossible to guage the level of sincerity, but with Armenia effectively in control of Karabagh, there doesn't seem to be much need for the Armenians to escalate violence:

"Azerbaijan has made announcements on purchase of arms and the forced resolution of the Karabakh conflict, however, talks on the peaceful resolution of the conflict are being held", [Prime Minister Serj Sarkisian] told reporters in Yerevan.

Sarkisyan said he is optimistic on the case and considers that normal civilized logics will win and Garabakh problem will be settled peacefully.

Unfortunately, when it comes to Karabagh, there's precious little "normal civilized logics" on either side. Indeed, even the numbers are a purely political game. At the moment, the Azeris are claiming to have lost three soldiers dead and one wounded to an Armenian loss of 15 dead; Sarkisian claims, meanwhile:

But I would like to inform that this position is currently under our control and the enemy has given up with numerous casualties.

Go nuclear

An interesting bit of news popped up via an Iranian news service:

Azerbaijan's President, Ilham Aliyev, voices his country's support for the Islamic Republic's right to peaceful nuclear technology, PressTV reported.

"Azerbaijan supports Iran's peaceful nuclear activities and has announced its stance formally," he said.

I'm quite sure there's more to this than we're getting here - certainly, Iran would be happy to take Aliev's words out of context - but it's intersting nonetheless.

Aliev is certainly deviating from the American line that any nuclear activity in Iran is totally objectionable, but is he bending, or is he breaking? It seems to me that in saying peaceful nuclear capacity is acceptable, he isn't accepting Iran's posession of nuclear weapons, but is allowing himself enough wiggle room to please his neighbor to the south without earning too strong an American rebuke. Iran is one of two powerhouses that are pinching Azerbaijan, and there are far more Azeris living in "South Azerbaijan" than in Azerbaijan proper. It would be interesting to find the whole transcript, though

Deterioration

The feeling among Azerbaijan watchers, from Embassy staff to aid workers in the most remote regions, is that there has been a tangible backsliding. An article in the Guardian is worth excerpting at length:

According to Idrak Abbasov of the Institute for War & Peace Reporting, organisations including the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) say Zahidov was the victim of a staged provocation, part of an assault on free speech and press freedom. The US state department agrees. This month it called on the Baku government to "comply with its stated commitments to respect the rule of law and support the development of independent media".
But overall, outside criticism has been muted - and ignored by Aliyev. Azerbaijan's importance to Washington and the EU as a producer and conduit of Caspian oil and gas, as a Nato-friendly ally bordering Iran, and as a foil to Russia overshadows human rights and democracy concerns.

The West is, indeed, sadly complicit in the backslide on democracy -- Azerbaijan seems to strategically important to push ideals upon, and that's sad.

There's much more at the link, so please do go "read the whole thing," as they say.