This is diplomacy

Amidst sporadic firefights on the border, an interesting UN resolution on Karabagh has Azerbaijan up in arms:

The UN General Assembly on March 14 adopted a nonbinding resolution demanding the "immediate, complete, and unconditional" withdrawal of all Armenian forces from Azerbaijan's territory.

Thirty nine countries voted in favor. But more than 100 countries abstained. Seven countries, however, including Russia, the United States, and France, voted against.

The three countries are co-chairs of the Minsk Group, which is trying to facilitate a negotiated settlement to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. They argued that, as mediators, they had to remain neutral.

The "no" vote by the Minsk Group members has raised the hackles of most people here, from the government to the press to the fractious opposition.

Of course, no one is happy with the outcome of the vote.

Meanwhile, food prices continue to rise in the face of Dutch Disease.

When violence works for everyone

Amid continuing violence in the aftermath of Armenian presidential elections, there's been a flareup in the Garabagh border standoff.

Azerbaijan claims that the violence is an attempt to divert attention from the protests, and that isn't entirely unbelievable. According to the Defence Ministry:

You see, Armenians are trying to divert the attention of their citizens and the world community from the internal and domestic unrest and bloody actions. That is the reason why Armenia resorted to this. Azerbaijani armed forces courageously and bravely repelled the enemy, prevented their attacks and gave deserving retaliation.

However, that's not the only issue at play here -- the actual violence comes in the direct aftermath of a salvo launched by Azeri president Ilham Aliyev:

"Official Baku will never make concessions to the separatist regime of Nagorno Karabakh and will never give up its principles. We are for the peaceful resolution of the problem in the framework of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity with observance of norms and principles of international law. But we should also be ready to the problem settlement by other ways," Aliyev noted.

He said in this issue country's leadership attach special attention to army strengthening. "For this purpose we use all capacities. Strengthening of the army will influence the negotiation process and settlement of the problem", the president said.

These broadsides, however, are a matter of course in Azeri politics, and one more or less could hardly rock the boat of Azer-Armenia diplomacy.

The Armenians, of course, responded; given the tensions between the two, it's impossible to guage the level of sincerity, but with Armenia effectively in control of Karabagh, there doesn't seem to be much need for the Armenians to escalate violence:

"Azerbaijan has made announcements on purchase of arms and the forced resolution of the Karabakh conflict, however, talks on the peaceful resolution of the conflict are being held", [Prime Minister Serj Sarkisian] told reporters in Yerevan.

Sarkisyan said he is optimistic on the case and considers that normal civilized logics will win and Garabakh problem will be settled peacefully.

Unfortunately, when it comes to Karabagh, there's precious little "normal civilized logics" on either side. Indeed, even the numbers are a purely political game. At the moment, the Azeris are claiming to have lost three soldiers dead and one wounded to an Armenian loss of 15 dead; Sarkisian claims, meanwhile:

But I would like to inform that this position is currently under our control and the enemy has given up with numerous casualties.

From the horses' mouth

An interesting back-and-forth between a journalist for ANS TV, one of the main news sources here, and the public:

- Why don’t you make any magazine or program about IT (information technologies) in native language? Yes, it is true that programs of this kind was made only in two (AZTV and ITV) of local TV channels. However, their level is not so satisfactory. I think, there is great need for it. May be it is worth to think about.

- I agree with you. Probably, the root of the problem lies in the fact that information technologies are not in native language. In Azerbaijan, rumor is preferred to information, broken phones preferred to communication, and hand-made methods to technologies.
...
-Whom do you see as ideal for yourself in this profession?

-I have no ideal, I have ideas. Telling the truth is everybody’s duty. Therefore, if you are respected for this, then it means there’s a problem in the society.
...
- What do you think about present-day education in Azerbaijan?

- I think... [edit: yep, that's the whole answer]

Deterioration

The feeling among Azerbaijan watchers, from Embassy staff to aid workers in the most remote regions, is that there has been a tangible backsliding. An article in the Guardian is worth excerpting at length:

According to Idrak Abbasov of the Institute for War & Peace Reporting, organisations including the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) say Zahidov was the victim of a staged provocation, part of an assault on free speech and press freedom. The US state department agrees. This month it called on the Baku government to "comply with its stated commitments to respect the rule of law and support the development of independent media".
But overall, outside criticism has been muted - and ignored by Aliyev. Azerbaijan's importance to Washington and the EU as a producer and conduit of Caspian oil and gas, as a Nato-friendly ally bordering Iran, and as a foil to Russia overshadows human rights and democracy concerns.

The West is, indeed, sadly complicit in the backslide on democracy -- Azerbaijan seems to strategically important to push ideals upon, and that's sad.

There's much more at the link, so please do go "read the whole thing," as they say.

Neighbors

In a dusty city in the center of the country, I leave the family I'm visiting to attend a conference. A few children roam the streets, and a cow, and the eternally-blowing plastic bags that litter this area. Beyond that, there's not much sign of activity -- as per usual. Although it's near a regional center, this town is pretty sleepy, as are most in Azerbaijan. I walk along the rock-strewn dirt road to where it intersects with blacktop, a distance of about a few blocks, and continue on to my conference.

I return three hours later, to an amazingly changed atmosphere. I can tell something big is going on, even before I get around the corner to my street. When I get there, I see two massive trucks: a dump truck pouring the black pebbles that will become an asphalt paving, and immediately behind it, a steamroller flattening the stuff into a street surface. The entire neighborhood, it seems, has turned out to watch the event.

What I don't see is just as interesting. The rock-strewn dust of the lower surface has not been cleared, or levelled. There is no gravel or other base. Not even the trash on the street -- plastic bottles and bags, paper, cow droppings -- has been cleared. They're simply paving over all of it, as quickly as possible. They've already finished a good few hundred feet, and in an hour, they've linked up our road with the paved one down the way.

I ask a gentleman standing there how this came about -- I hadn't heard any rumors of development before I left.

"Oh, a relative of a neighbor knew a guy. He was paving somewhere else in town, so he stopped by here." There's nothing more to the story than that.

By the next morning, kids are already chipping chunks of the blacktop off with rocks.

Sad fate

Although there may be some growing connections between Armenia and Azerbaijan, there is still a tremendous amount of hatred between the two. And sadly, events like this are all too common on both sides of the border.

In a village in the north of Azerbaijan, a more cosmopolitan place where the Russian influence is strong and at least some of the influence of tradition is starting to wane, I'm talking to a young man who is about to join the military for his two years of mandatory service. "If you don't have money, you salute," he says. "I love my village; I don't want to leave. I'll probably be on the border, with the enemy always in sight."

Later, he says, with pride in his eyes, "Someday there will be a war. We will take back our lands from the evil Armenians. My brothers and I will be there."

Offered without comment

Walking in a dusty city on the sea, with dogs lying in the shade and geese on the trash heap, I strike up a conversation with a merchant standing on his stoop:

"You know, I used to work in Russia. It was good there, I had a shop and made money. There was no corruption. Well, maybe 50-50. Here it's 80-20."